Consult the DraftKings guru for your guide to UFC Fight Night 136.
Special announcement: My DraftKings content will be moving to a new home in the coming weeks. I am signed up to provide exclusive DFS MMA content for @TheQuantEdge which will include my weekly written breakdown and a members-only podcast with @Tyslice23.
Follow me on twitter @shppirate12 for my exclusive code for new subscribers.
UFC Fight Night 136: Hunt vs Oleinik
UFC Moscow Draftkings Advice
UFC Moscow is a unique card. This is the first UFC card in Russia, and we don’t know how consistent the judging will be for this fight card. If you view any of these fights as a toss up it may pay dividends to favor the Russian fighter.
These Russian fighters may also push the envelope with the PED use, so keep that in mind if they are making their UFC debut. Another unique aspect of this cards is the odds disparity. Currently, we have 7 fighters favored with odds greater than -400 and we also have 8 fights favored to finish.
On this card, the strategy needs to center around which of the $9k fighters score the highest when they get the eventual knockout. My strategy is to look for fighters who can finish late in the 1st round securing that 90 point finish bonus or late in the 2nd round securing that 75 point finish bonus. Finishing early in the round will result in fewer points in most cases.
As always, for cash games, you are looking for 4 wins out of your 6 fighters. I do not recommend stacking this week. In GPPs, you are looking for 6 wins mostly via finish to have a chance to take home the big prize with an optimal lineup. Good luck making lineups this week. This analysis should help you put those 6 fighter lineups together.
This week’s Draftkings Podcast can be found at the @JerseyBoysMMA page:
The Main Event: Mark Hunt $8.6K vs Alexey Oleinik $7.6K
Most weeks I would call this a must play in GPPs, but with 8 fights favored to finish, I can’t be so sure. I do expect this fight to finish so it is a GPP target. Depending on how this fight plays out it could be a low scoring finish with not many strikes before the knockout or submission. I do recommend playing both sides of this fight in GPPs and let me paint a path to victory with probable scoring.
If Mark Hunt wins, he most likely gets a 10 point knockdown and a 90/75 point finish bonus. It’s very likely there are not many strikes thrown before this happens. Oleinik is going to stay away from Hunt’s power and if Hunt is able to connect it will only take a few significant strikes to do the necessary damage.
If Oleinik wins it will most likely be a result of his submission ability. His sub game is very good and will likely try to get Hunt down to the ground early or soften him up with leg kicks and pick his spot to get this fight to the ground. Once on the ground, I think Oleinik will be able to work Hunt over with a neck crank or choke. Play both sides here; they both have paths to victory.
The Co-Main Event: Nikita Krylov $8.2K vs Jan Blachowicz $8K
This 3 round fight is also expected to finish. I am excited to see the return of Nikita Krylov. Krylov was ranked 8th at 24 years old when he fought Misha Cirkunov and lost by 2nd round guillotine. That was his last UFC fight and finished that stint in the UFC with a 6-3 record. He returns after 2 years and 4 more fights under his belt in regional competition. He finished all 4 of the fights; 1 by submission and 3 by KO/TKO. He’s now 26 years old and I expect he’s made improvements.
He had the 2nd highest striking rate in the division at 24 years old when he took his 2-year hiatus. He’s a finisher with a well rounded striking game with submission ability. Jan Blachowicz is a tough fighter who grinds out wins. He has won 3 straight fights capped off by a decision win over Jimmy Manuwa in a rematch. Jan dropped Manuwa early and took the fight out of him as Jimmy chased a knockout in front of his home crowd. Jan is now ranked 4th in the division on the heels of that win. This is very close to being a pick em fight but my preferred play is Nikita Krylov in GPPs.
GPP Fight: Magomed Ankalaev $9.1K vs Marcin Prachnio $7.1K
This fight should finish and I like both sides of this fight. For the price savings and knockout ability my preferred play is Marcin Prachnio. Prachnio entered his lone UFC fight as a -250 favorite vs Sam Alvey. He was too overconfident in that fight and chased a knockout. Sam Alvey has experience in the octagon and is a great counter striker. Prachnio tried to lead the dance and got leveled twice by Alvey.
It was a bad performance, bad game plan, and he paid the price. Prachnio is a physical specimen and tough. I like his chances here. Ankalaev is a southpaw who was fed Paul Craig in his UFC debut. Craig is a known grappler who has been brutally knocked out before. Craig held his own striking early before Ankalaev took over winning rounds. Ankalaev showed poor ring IQ very late in the 3rd round and got subbed. I was not pleased with his 48.5 DK points including 59 significant strikes vs an inferior striker in Paul Craig. On a card with high priced favorite everywhere, my preferred play here is Prachnio but Ankalaev should be played also in low volume GPPs.
Top Tier Leans ($9.6k-$8.7k):
Rustam Khabilov $9.5K– Khabilov is going to win this fight and it’s just a question of his DK score being high enough to pay off his price. Kajan Johnson is going to attempt to use his length and point fight from the outside ring of the octagon. My concern is Khabilov may not be able to force Johnson to consistently engage. If Johnson engages he will feel the strength of Khabilov en route to a possible finish. Low volume GPPs and cash play.
Petr Yan $9.6K– This fight should be nonstop action and striking. Yan is powerful and explosive when he strikes; he applies a lot of pressure to his opponents. There is limited tape circulating on Jin Soo Son but he likes to strike and walk forward; that’s a recipe for disaster vs Yan. The price is steep but Yan is my preferred play here in GPPs and cash.
Alexey Kunchenko $9K– I was actually surprised to see Kunchenko’s price as I thought it would be much higher. Thiago Alves is very hittable and his leg kicks are going to be met with hard right-hand punches. Kunchenko is my preferred play in GPPs and cash. He makes for a nice cash value at $9K.
Merab Dvalishvili $9.2K– Merab has had some bad luck in his 2 UFC losses. He has high energy, high volume striking, will chase multiple takedown attempts, and pressure for 3 rounds. Ware should last the distance and I do like this stack in cash as it should score very well. Merab is a safe cash play and moderate GPP play.
Ramazan Emeev $9.3K– Another Russian fighter and he epitomizes what I think of when I think of a tough Russian fighter. He takes on Stefan Sekulic and I am not sure Stefan is tough enough to beat a guy like Emeev. I can see this fight going to decision but Emeev should get the best of Stefan and impose his will on him physically. Cash play and low volume GPP play.
Mid Tier Leans ($8.6K-$7.6K):
Khalid Murtazaliev $8.4K– Murtazaliev uses a well rounded striking attack to wear down his opponent. He will wrestle, go after the takedown, and look for ground & pond once he gets his opponent to the ground. CB Dollaway is 35 years old and was knocked out by Hector Lombard in his last fight. On paper, he got the win because the 2 piece combination was after the bell but on his medical records he suffered a concussion and had no idea what was going on in the ring. He was taken out of the octagon on a stretcher. Murtazaliev is a great price at $8.4K in cash and play his moderately in GPPs.
Andrei Arlovski $7.9K– Both guys are playable but I like Arlovski for two reasons. A look at his price of $7.9k is appealing considering this is a pick ’em fight to me. Arlovski fought Tuivasa last time out and was ahead in that fight until the very end and lost a tough decision. I would not have been surprised if Arlovski’s hand was raised. I see this fight playing out in a similar fashion and I think Shamil Abdurakhimov is a lesser opponent than Tuivasa.
Lower Tier Leans ($7.5K-$6.6K):
Terrion Ware $7K/Stefan Sekulic $6.9K– These two guys are cash game punts. If you want to play the high priced guys up top I suggest you look to these guys to round out your cash lineup. They are both tough enough to last 3 rounds with their respective opponents. A viable cash game strategy would be to punt with these two and pick 4 other favorites.
Adam Yandiev $7.5K– Yandiev hasn’t fought in 3 years so there is cause for concern with him. He is 9-0 in his career with 9 finishes; 6 submissions and 3 KO/TKOs. His last 4 fights have been 1st round subs. He is a Judo player from Russia and he is jacked; high likelihood he is on the juice. He looks like an absolute killer in his online pictures. He has a tendency to gas in his fights but has finished them to this point. Jordan Johnson has a wrestling background but that could play into Yandiev’s submission game a bit. Johnson is also not a quick striker so Yandiev should enjoy a speed advantage. Both guys are extremely tough and strong. If it finishes early I favor Yandiev to get that finish.
Des Green $7.3K– There is a lot of outside the ring stuff going on with this fight. Des Green was in a horrific car accident weeks ago and is back in the right to fight. Taisumov has been favored in every UFC fight to date but hasn’t fought the best competition. He’s had a bunch of fights canceled but this fight in Russia favors him from a home-field advantage standpoint. I may be arguing against myself but Des Green can last 3 rounds with Taisumov but then this fight hits the scorecards with a hometown Russian the betting favorite; possible home cooking. Des has quick hands and doesn’t hang around the pocket absorbing big shots. Taisumov is going to have to earn and win by grinding it out vs Des and accumulating points. Both guys can wrestle so I think that will be negated and it’ll play out on the feet. Des has a path to victory if the judges are on point.
Embed from Getty Images
View the original article on MMA Sucka: UFC Fight Night 136 DraftKings Advice