Nostrathomas had a great Week Nine and can’t wait to carry that momentum forward into his NFL Week 10 picks. The Seer of Sayers finished last week 3-0 with his top picks, 9-4 overall against the spread, and 8-4 straight up. Those results lift Nostrathomas’ record for the year to 14-12-2 with his top picks, including 5-1 the past two weeks, 57-56-2 overall against the spread and a still scorching 75-34-1 straight up.
We’re getting to a point in the 2018 season where the playoff contenders are beginning to separate from the pretenders. That separation is beginning to show up in point spreads. For NFL Week 10 there are five teams that the public is betting heavily. Nostrathomas will begin with a look at those games to see if they’re worth tying together into your Week 10 parlay.
All point spreads taken on Saturday morning from Vegasinsider.com.
NFL Week 10 Best Bets
Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears -6.5 (1 PM ET; Soldier Field, Chicago, IL)
The Detroit Lions struggled out of the gate in 2018 but had fought their way to a 3-3 record before losing in Week Eight to the Seattle Seahawks, 28-14. Detroit’s front office responded with a trade deadline deal, sending starting wide receiver Golden Tate to the Philadelphia Eagles. The result of that move was a 24-9 loss last week to the Minnesota Vikings that was not as close as the final score indicated.
This week things don’t get any easier for Detroit as they travel to play the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears. They will be getting all-world outside linebacker Khalil Mack and starting wide receiver Allen Robinson back on the field.
The Bears head into Week 10 leading the NFL with a 12.2 yards per point average. On defense, they force opponents to an average of 16.8 yards gained per point. Chicago’s defense also tops the league in both defensive passer rating, 80.5, and forcing negative pass plays, sacks, and interceptions. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford was sacked 10 times by Minnesota last week and will be running for his life again.
There are also trends that favor the Bears in this game. Chicago is 3-0 against the point spread in their last three and 4-1 in their last five games at Soldier Field. They are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against losing teams.
Chicago Bears 29, Detroit Lions 20
New England Patriots -6.5 vs Tennessee Titans (1 PM ET; Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN)
The New England Patriots have seen 87 percent of public money backing them in their road trip to face the Tennessee Titans. The last time these two teams met was in a Divisional Round game last season, which the Patriots won 35-14.
Right now, New England is doing their yearly marauding through the middle of their schedule. The Patriots are on a six-game winning streak, including wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers. Last week, Tennessee came out of their bye with a 28-14 dismantling of the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football.
Both teams need a win in this game. New England is running just behind the Chiefs in the AFC Playoff race. They are also trying to hold off the surging Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans. The Titans need this game to keep pace in a crowded AFC Wild Card race. Nostrathomas is predicting that the Patriots will get the win they need.
Tennessee’s defense leads the NFL in points allowed and their defensive front is strong and should be able to provide consistent pocket pressure but every defense in the league steps up in class when facing the ageless Tom Brady.
On offense, the Patriots are fifth in the NFL with a 12.9 yards per point average and Brady is seventh in net yards per pass attempt. Also, while playing a tougher schedule New England has a plus 68 point differential through nine games. Tennessee’s differential is on the negative side of the ledger.
There are a couple of trends that favor the Patriots heading into this game. New England has covered the point spread in five of their last six games. They’ve also covered in their last six games leading into their bye week.
New England Patriots 30, Tennessee Titans 20
Atlanta Falcons -6 vs Cleveland Browns (1 PM ET; FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH)
The Cleveland Browns hung tough through the first half of their game last week against Kansas City before Patrick Mahomes and company ran away with a 37-21 victory. This week they get to host Matt Ryan, who burned the Washington Redskins last week for 350 passing yards and four touchdowns.
The Atlanta Falcons need a win to keep themselves relevant in the NFC Playoff hunt and they’re facing the Browns at a perfect time. Cleveland’s defense has been decimated by injuries.
Linebacker Christian Kirksey and cornerback E.J. Gaines were placed on injured reserve last week after the Chiefs game. Safety Damarious Randall is still fighting a groin injury and linebacker Joe Schobert is suffering from a hamstring injury. Both practiced last week but, along with Denzel Ward being slowed by a hip flexor injury, it’s difficult to see how they’re going to keep up with the speed of the Falcons offense.
This game opened with Atlanta favored by 3.5 and has been bet heavily by the public to a six-point spread. Nostrathomas says it’s still worth playing as long as that spread stays within a touchdown.
Atlanta Falcons 32, Cleveland Browns 21
Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles -7 (Sunday Night Football, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA)
For Cowboys fans, this might be a bad week to quit sniffing glue. Dallas is coming off a 28-14 thrashing by Tennessee and they’re traveling to face an Eagles team that is determined to challenge Washington for the top of the NFC East.
The Cowboys are coming off a short week and will be playing without linebacker Sean Lee, which is a crippling blow to their defense.
For Philadelphia, running back Darren Sproles will still be sidelined with hamstring problems but the Eagles were not quietly waiting for his return during their bye week. They added Golden Tate to a receiving corps that already boasts Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery.
Dallas is 0-4 and 1-3 against the spread when on the road this season. Those marks won’t be improving this week.
Philadelphia Eagles 26, Dallas Cowboys 16
The Best of the Rest
New Orleans Saints -5.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals, plus Over 54 Total Points (1 PM ET; Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH)
The New Orleans Saints are the fifth team that is receiving heavy support from the public this week. The only reason Nostrathomas did not group them into his top picks was the possibility of a let down after they outscored the Los Angeles Rams 45-35 last week. Still, that win does New Orleans little good if they stumble against the Cincinnati Bengals this week.
Seeing the Saints taking their foot off the gas pedal is unlikely though. They’re still a half-game behind Los Angeles and need a win to put pressure on the Rams at the top of the conference.
Still, the Bengals record sits at 5-3 and they’re holding onto the second AFC Wild Card spot by the skin of their teeth. The problem they have is receiver A.J. Green is likely to miss this game with a toe injury. Cincinnati’s record without Green in the lineup is 3-6-1.
The Bengals should be able to score in this game which is why Nostrathomas is also recommending that you also take the “over 54” point total.
The Saints have covered the spread in their last five away games. They are also on a 16-5 run on the road against the spread.
New Orleans Saints 36, Cincinnati Bengals 29
Los Angeles Chargers -10 vs Oakland Raiders (4:05 PM ET; Oakland Coliseum, Oakland, CA)
Even giving 10 points, the Los Angeles Chargers are a strong play this week.
Philip Rivers is having an MVP caliber season for the Chargers so far in 2018. Oakland was chewed up by a third string quarterback on the Thursday Night Football game that kicked off Week Nine. Gruden the Elder’s team is also at the very bottom of Nostrathomas’ statistical power rankings, yes even below the Buffalo Bills.
The Chargers are also 16-4 against the spread in their last 20 games in Oakland.
Los Angeles Chargers 42, Oakland Raiders 16
Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers -10 (4:25 PM ET; Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI)
To this point of the season, the Miami Dolphins have been enjoying the sight of NFC North teams travelling south to sweat in the Florida sun. This week, the Green Bay Packers will enjoy hosting Brock Osweiler and company in near freezing conditions at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay Packers 32, Miami Dolphins 19
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs Indianapolis Colts (1 PM ET; Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN)
Surprised by this pick? So was Nostrathomas when the suds within his crystal beer mugs pointed to the Jacksonville Jaguars to win this game.
Both teams are coming off their bye weeks but the Indianapolis Colts still have 13 players on their injured list.
On the other side of the ball, Jacksonville is getting healthier on defense and running back Leonard Fournette will be returning to the offense.
The Jaguars have covered the last six point spreads in this series and are 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games in Indianapolis. Take the Jaguars to win and cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars 26, Indianapolis Colts 24
Too Close to Call but Nostrathomas Picks Them All
Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs -16.5 (1 PM ET; Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO)
There’s no question in anyone’s mind that the Chiefs are going to make short work of the Arizona Cardinals at home. The only question is whether or not they take their foot off the gas pedal in the second half.
This is a big spread to cover but Nostrathomas thinks the Chiefs can do it against one of the league’s bottom feeders.
Kansas City Chiefs 35, Arizona Cardinals 14
Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams -9.5 (4:25 PM ET; Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA)
The Seahawks gave Los Angeles all they could handle in Week Five at home but the Rams will be looking to put a stranglehold on the NFC West. They also need it to keep the Saints from knocking them down to second seed in the NFC.
This is a big spread to ask Los Angeles to cover but the Seahawks are banged up on offense. Seattle receiver Doug Baldwin is still fighting a groin injury and running back Chris Carson is slowed because of his hip. Russell Wilson will have limited weapons to count on to keep this game close.
Los Angeles Rams 32, Seattle Seahawks 20
Washington Redskins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (1 PM ET; Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL)
Smith and running back Adrian Peterson will be working behind a makeshift offensive line this week. That makes it too tough to pick them to cover in Tampa.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22, Washington Redskins 18
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets -7 (1 PM ET; MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ)
The only reason Nostrathomas is picking the Jets is that McCown is at least a competent backup quarterback.
New York Jets 23, Buffalo Bills 13
New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers +3 (Monday Night Football, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA)
If you thought the Raiders kicking off Week Nine on the road against the San Francisco 49ers was compelling football, look at what the NFL is closing Week 10 with.
Seriously, when the league and networks were kicking around the 2018 prime time schedule did they expect this to be a must-watch Monday Night Football battle? Even with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm for the 49ers, Nostrathomas finds that hard to swallow.
There’s no reason why rookie Nick Mullens doesn’t do to the Giants what he did to Oakland last week.
San Francisco 49ers 31, New York Giants 17
View the original article on Last Word On Pro Football: Nostrathomas Predicts: NFL Week 10 Picks Including Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears