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ESPN Football Power Index Predicts 8-8 Record For Giants

June 1st, 2017 at 1:48 PM
Aggregated By Giants 101

James Lang-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN’s analytics team has released its 2017 NFL projections, called the FPI (Football Power Index).

The FPI predicts the final record for every team and ranks how it thinks they will finish in the division.

For our purposes, the FPI is predicting that the New York Giants will take a three game step backwards, finishing 8-8 (8.2-7.7), and come in second in their division, with a 22.6 percent chance of winning the division.

Unsurprisingly, they are also predicting that the Dallas Cowboys will win the division (46.4 percent chance), with a 9-7 record (9.4-6.6).

The Giants are ranked 11th overall by the FPI, while the Cowboys are sixth.

About the NFC East as a whole, ESPN’s analytics team says:

The Cowboys are looking to become the first repeat champion in the NFC East since the Eagles won four consecutive titles between 2001 and 2004, and FPI gives Dallas a 46.4 percent chance to do so. “The field” of the Giants (22.6 percent chance), Eagles (19.3) and Redskins (11.7) collectively has a higher probability than the Cowboys (53.6), so don’t bet against the title changing hands yet again.

But how did they arrive at that conclusion? Well, ESPN don’t give out the formula(s), but it does offer a glimpse behind the curtain.

For starters, “EPA” or “Expected Points Added” is used as the basis for predictions. Essentially it is a measure of how good an offense is (or was), based on how many points per play they have.

One of the analysts behind the FPI had this to say about what they’ve found about offense and defense in the NFL.

As I expected, performance from past seasons is a strong indicator of …

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Tags: Brandon Marshall, Chaz Green, D.J. Fluker, Dallas Cowboys, Darian Thompson, Denver Broncos, Doug Free, Eagles, Green, Jason Pierre-Paul, Johnathan Hankins, Leon Hall, New York Giants, Redskins, Rhett Ellison, Ronald Leary, Victor Cruz

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