It's no secret that the 2007 New York Giants were fierce underdogs heading into a Super Bowl matchup with the then undefeated New England Patriots. Even prior to that, they had battled back from an 0-2 start to the season and embraced the underdog role on a near weekly basis. It's why their rallying cry was "resiliency."
But just how unlikely was it that Big Blue would go into Arizona and knock off the 18-0 Patriots? Well, based on a new mathematical formula put together by Football Perspective, they were the most unlikely Super Bowl champions in the history of the NFL with a less than 1% chance at winning the Big Game. So imagine how big someone would have hit it if they had placed a wager using SportsBettingInfo.com.
"As you might expect, no team was as unlikely to win the Super Bowl at the start of the playoffs as the 2007 New York Giants. … New York was a 3-point underdog in Tampa Bay in the Wildcard round (41.4%), a 7-point dog in Dallas (30.7%), and a 7.5-point underdog in Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game (29.4%). Then, in the Super Bowl against the 18-0 Patriots, the Giants were 12.5-point underdogs, implying an 18.4% chance of victory. The odds of New York winning all four of those games was less than one percent."
To be more specific, the Giants had a 0.7% chance of winning Super Bowl XLII. By comparison, the next closest team to them in terms of unlikely probability was the 2012 Baltimore Ravens, who were given a 2% chance to win it all.
Additionally, the 2007 Giants were the only team in NFL history to have less than a 42% chance to win any single one of their playoff games (wild card through Super Bowl), with the 1980 Oakland Raiders being the only other team to have less than a 48% probability in their respective playoff games. No other team has ever faced less than 50% odds in each game throughout the playoffs.
By comparison, the 2011 New York Giants had a 3% chance to win it all (also one of the most unlikely Super Bowl runs in history), while the 1986 and 1990 teams had a 30.1% chance and a 6.2% chance respectively.
Only the 1994 San Francisco 49ers and the 1995 Dallas Cowboys had better than 50% odds to win it all, making them the two most likely Super Bowl champions in history.
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