Name: Davey Grant
Opponent: Martin Day
Odds: +148 (bet $100 to win $148)
Usually I have a pretty good sense of why the numbers are coming in where they are and why the line may have been set that way. However, in this one, I’m pretty stumped.
To start, Day has been away for over a year and a half, which bettors usually take into account (which subsequently affects lines). Secondly, in that fight, he hardly looked like he had a complete ground game, getting his guard passed in the third round after being knocked down by Liu Pingyuan. While he did stuff Pingyuan’s takedown attempts early in the fight, we need to adjust for the fact that he’s only 20% accurate on his takedowns in the first place and doesn’t really attempt many.
Now we take a look at Grant, who is coming off a stellar performance in November, where he took Grigory Popov down six times. Popov, you’ll remember, shut Eddie Wineland’s wrestling game down and is no slouch when it comes to wrestling.
Knowing that there is this clear wrestle to submission path for Grant and taking the time off into account, it’s definitely worth a plus-money play.
2020 Record: 7-9
Earnings (based on $100 bet/event): $275
Return on Investment: 17%
2018-19 Record: 31-47 (+1.5%)
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View the original article on MMA Manifesto: The Livest Dog at UFC 251: Davey Grant