Name: Ian Heinisch
Opponent: Antonio Carlos Junior
Odds: +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
It makes sense for Heinisch to be an underdog here. He’s only had one UFC fight and finds himself in a showdown with a top 15 opponent. Plus, he’s facing off with a ranked fighter with a five-fight UFC win streak.
So why would it make any sense to lay down on Heinisch?
The answer lies in the opponents that have beat Antonio Carlos Junior. His last two losses came at the hands of Patrick Cummins and Dan Kelly, both of whom are tough grapplers with solid defensive submission skills. While Heinisch isn’t a perfect analog for those two, he does have a lot of the same skills that gave Carlos Junior issues. So at almost 2-to-1 odds, it makes all the sense in the world to put a few bucks on Heinisch.
Earnings (based on $100 bet/event): $-652
Return on Investment: -47%
2018 Record: 18-19 (+26%)
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View the original article on MMA Manifesto: The Livest Dog at UFC Rochester: Ian Heinisch