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Will the Colorado Rockies Get the Number One Pick in Next Year’s Draft?

August 5th, 2014 at 5:00 AM
By Joe Lemere

20130817-0904 from Flickr via Wylio? 2013 Keith Allison, Flickr | CC-BY-SA | via Wylio

The Colorado Rockies might not be involved in any division or wild card playoff races, but they are involved in one potentially important race. It's between them and the Texas Rangers to see who finishes with the worst record in Major League Baseball and is awarded the number one pick in next year's draft. It is a two team race, and barring slides from other bad teams, will remain that way. So, who has the advantage? Who will take home the number one pick?

The Rangers and the Rox are actually very similar teams this season. They were both picked to be about average, with Texas maybe winning a couple more games, but then injuries to key guys sent their seasons off the rails. As the injuries piled up, the healthy guys couldn't keep the momentum from swinging too negatively and now both teams are bottom dwellers with no hope of even sniffing the playoffs this year. As of today, the Rangers are 43-69, while the Rockies sit at 44-67. Both play in extreme hitters parks and have seen horrible pitching and underwhelming offense to make things worse.

The teams are similar in terms of numbers, too. The Rockies have the worst statistical pitching staff in the majors, but the Rangers come in at a close second. The Rockies allow 5.19 runs per game, have an ERA of 4.96, have given up 126 home runs and have a K/BB ratio of 1.96 — all worst in MLB. The Rangers are close behind with allowing 5.15 runs per game, a 4.88 ERA, 115 HR and a 2.19 K/BB ratio. It's no coincidence that the two worst pitching teams are the two worst teams in the game record wise.

Offensively, the Rockies have the advantage, but their numbers are bolstered by early season outbursts and averaging over 5.4 runs per game during April. Now the Rox average 4.6 runs while hitting .277 and stealing 64 bases. The Rangers are averaging 3.98 runs, hitting .258 and stealing 70 bases. The Rangers best the Rockies in terms of plate discipline, earning more walks and striking out 50 fewer times. With pitching as bad as these teams have, the 1927 Yankees would have lost more than 44 games.

Looking forward, Texas has a more difficult schedule to finish up the season thanks to their division. They have 10 series to go against teams that are over .500 compared to the Rockies number of 7 series. To aid the Rangers in their pursuit of number one will be the Rockies health. They are slowly getting healthier and they should slowly get better as a result.

The Texas Rangers will end up with the number one pick, followed by Houston in the two and three slots, and the Rockies will pick fourth. Even though it's almost a year out, Daz Cameron seems to be the favorite to go at the top of the draft, and he'll play his ball in Arlington.

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